Opinion: Washington’s shift blue is a mirage

Nancy Churchill explains why Washington’s perceived shift blue after 2024 is a mirage.

Nancy Churchill says now is the time for conservatives in Washington to unite, stay engaged, and fight for the policies that will Make America Great and Healthy Again

Nancy Churchill
Dangerous Rhetoric

If you scan recent headlines, it may seem that Washington State is drifting further left after the 2024 election. Articles like Axios’ “Why Washington was the only state to shift blue in 2024,” and MyNorthwest.com’s “‘As goes King County, so goes the state:’ WA turns into deeper blue state after 2024 election,” paint a stark picture. Even Jason Rantz’s KTTH piece, “Donald Trump created a red surge across the country, but blue Washington won’t budge,” underscores the state’s seeming resistance to national conservative trends.

The election results for statewide candidates appear to support this perception. The average Democratic candidate secured roughly 60% of the vote, further cementing Washington’s image as a stronghold for progressive politics. Naturally, this has sparked considerable frustration and self-examination within conservative circles.

However, upon reviewing the Axios data, the numbers behind the headlines reveal that the “shift blue,” was simply a case of looking at the numbers before all of the votes had been counted. On Nov. 12, when the Axios piece was published, it appeared that Trump had received .06% FEWER votes in 2024 than in 2020 — hence the “shift blue.”

However, as of Nov. 16 results update, Trump had received 38.89% of the votes. Therefore, Trump received .12% MORE votes in the Evergreen State than the 38.77% he received in 2020. And if we include the 1.39% of the Washington vote that Robert F. Kennedy received, the shift red was even stronger. MAGA/MAHA got 40.28% of the vote. Washington’s “shift blue” was a mirage. “Fake news”, if you will.

Today, I’d like to offer a deeper analysis that goes beyond the headlines. While Washington State appeared out of step with the national rightward shift, there’s reason to believe this is not correct and only temporary. Below, I’ll outline three critical perspectives: first, issues that are not primarily responsible for Republican losses; second, the real causes of progressive dominance in Washington; and finally, reasons for optimism that Washington could soon begin to shift more strongly rightward alongside the rest of the country.

What’s not to blame?

Before jumping to conclusions, it’s essential to dispel some common misconceptions about why conservatives struggle in Washington elections.

Motor voter laws: Washington implemented motor voter registration in 1990. This policy has been in place for decades and predates recent electoral trends. It’s not a new factor driving progressive victories.

All-mail voting: Similarly, mail-in voting began in Washington in 1991 and became universal in 2005. While concerns about mail-in voting are valid, it’s not the sole reason Republicans face challenges here.

Candidate quality: Both Loren Culp in 2020 and Dave Reichert in 2024 faced tough races and performed similarly. William Kirk over at Washington Gun Law looked deeply at the numbers, and found that candidate quality probably wasn’t the issue. While there’s always room for stronger candidates, this doesn’t fully explain the gap.

Election integrity alone: While election integrity is an important concern, election integrity expert Bill Bruch points out it’s not the sole or defining reason for Republican underperformance in Washington. Broader demographic and cultural factors are at play.

The real causes of progressive dominance

To understand why Washington remains a deep-blue state, we must look at structural and demographic realities. In the video “Maybe this is why the GOP Can’t Win in WA State,” William Kirk looked at the numbers and estimates we probably have 500,000 more progressives in the state than conservatives. Conservatives are simply outnumbered! Why?

Changing demographics: Over the last decade, Washington has experienced significant progressive in-migration and conservative out-migration. Draconian COVID-19 mandates, rising taxes, and relentless cultural progressivism have driven many conservative families to red states like Idaho and Texas. Simultaneously, Washington’s booming tech industry attracts left-leaning professionals from across the country.

Tech industry influence: The Seattle area’s role as a global tech hub has concentrated political power in progressive hands. Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google bring thousands of workers who overwhelmingly align with leftist ideologies on issues like climate change, housing, and equity initiatives.

Environmental progressives: Washington’s breathtaking natural beauty appeals to environmental activists who prioritize green policies, often at the expense of economic growth. These voters support stringent regulations that limit housing development and drive up costs — policies that disproportionately affect working-class families.

Urban power centers: The state’s Growth Management Act, designed to curb suburban sprawl, has concentrated political and economic power in urban centers like Seattle, Tacoma, and Bellevue. This urban dominance dilutes the voices of rural and suburban conservatives.

COVID fallout: The pandemic accelerated an exodus of conservatives frustrated by mask mandates, business closures, and vaccine requirements. This mass departure has further consolidated progressive power in Washington.

Reasons for optimism

While the current picture may seem bleak, there are compelling reasons to believe Washington could begin to follow the national trend toward conservative policies.

Republican control at the federal level: With Republicans back in control of key federal institutions, the state will feel the influence of conservative policies on immigration, energy, and education. These federal changes could highlight the failings of Washington’s progressive policies, forcing voters to reconsider their allegiance to Democratic leadership.

Building on MAGA coalitions: The Make America Great Again movement has successfully broadened the conservative base, attracting younger voters, working-class families, and immigrant communities. Washington Republicans can and should replicate this strategy, focusing on practical issues like affordable housing, school choice, jobs creation and public safety.

Rising costs of progressive policies: Washington’s progressive governance is creating unsustainable conditions for everyday families. Skyrocketing housing costs, failing public schools, and rampant homelessness are eroding public trust in Democratic leadership. Voters who once prioritized ideological purity are increasingly frustrated with the tangible consequences of these policies.

Grassroots energy: Washington’s conservative movement has deep roots in rural communities, faith-based organizations, and independent business owners. These groups are already mobilizing to fight back against excessive taxation, overregulation, and social engineering. A stronger grassroots coalition could challenge urban dominance and reinvigorate the state’s political landscape.

A changing national conversation: The progressive agenda that dominates Washington politics is falling out of favor nationally. Issues like parental rights, border security and economic freedom are resonating with voters across the country. As these issues gain prominence, Washingtonians may find themselves increasingly out of step with Democratic orthodoxy.

Lagging behind? Not for long.

While Washington State initially appeared to lag behind the nation’s shift toward MAGA policies, it’s not supported by the data. Washington shifted red along with the rest of the country. While the state is currently dominated by progressives, this is not a permanent condition. Demographic challenges, urban power structures, and the lingering effects of COVID-era policies have created headwinds for Republicans, but these are not insurmountable obstacles.

By building on MAGA coalitions, leveraging grassroots energy, and focusing on the failures of progressive policies, conservatives in Washington can begin to chart a new course. With Republican leadership at the federal level and a growing awareness of the need for practical solutions, the Evergreen State has the potential to join the national movement toward a stronger, freer, and more prosperous future.

Don’t abandon Washington! Now is the time for conservatives in Washington to unite, stay engaged, and fight for the policies that will Make America Great and Healthy Again — starting right here at home. It’s especially important for conservatives to stay engaged with the legislative process and to look ahead to next year’s local elections. Together we can change hearts and minds and help Washington to continue to shift right.

Nancy Churchill is a writer and educator in rural eastern Washington State, and the state committeewoman for the Ferry County Republican Party. She may be reached at DangerousRhetoric@pm.me. The opinions expressed in Dangerous Rhetoric are her own. Dangerous Rhetoric is available on thinkspot, Rumble and Substack.