Portland’s transit agency will have cut service by 35 percent in 2035 when I-5 Bridge replacement complete
Rep. John Ley
for Clark County Today
Last week, Portland’s transit agency issued its latest financial warning –TriMet faces a “fiscal cliff” in 2031. The agency needs a huge financial bailout or they will have to cut service by 15 percent in July 2027, and then 5 percent every two years thereafter. Last year, the Portland transit agency had an $850 million operating loss.
Over the past decade, Portland’s TriMet has had $6 billion in operating losses. Its 10-year financial projection in last year’s annual report was to burn through another $1.1 billion in cash.
TriMet is currently demanding Clark County taxpayers pay over $7 million each year for light rail operations and maintenance of the 1.8-mile extension of their MAX Yellow Line into Vancouver as part of the Interstate Bridge Replacement Program (IBR) proposal. The 4,350-foot-long extension will have two stops – one 80-90 feet above the ground at the Waterfront, and the other at Evergreen near the library.
Washington state has committed $1.1 billion to the I-5 Bridge replacement project. Last week the House authorized the Washington State Department of Transportation to issue $2.5 billion in toll bonds for the project, of which the single largest component is the $2 billion MAX light rail extension. That’s a billion dollars per mile!
The light rail component has triggered huge consternation in Clark County. The C-TRAN Board reversed their earlier prohibition of funding light rail Operations and Maintenance (O&M) last November, initiated by Vancouver Mayor Anne McEnerny Ogle. But the majority of the Board had second thoughts in December, when the price was revealed to be over $7 million per year.
The Clark County Council removed Councilor Michelle Belkot for her expressed desire to protect Clark County taxpayers by moving to reverse the November decision. Camas Councilor Tim Hein and Vancouver Councilor Bart Hansen also expressed significant concerns. Hein said he never would have voted “for” the November C-TRAN Board motion if he had known the costs.
Administrator Greg Johnson and his IBR team have promised Yellow Line service every 6.7 minutes, more than double current peak-hour, 15-minute light rail service. In fact TriMet officials have made this promise of more than four trains an hour multiple times in the past. They have never delivered it. Why should people trust them now?
The IBR is projecting 26,000 to 33,000 daily transit riders on the I-5 corridor by 2045. Nobody believes those numbers as current C-TRAN express bus ridership is around 550 daily boardings. C-TRAN had seven separate express bus lines over the Columbia River pre pandemic. Today it only has three. In December, the Board was told ridership was flat on their cross-river ridership.
In December 2024, John Charles of the Cascade Policy Institute offered the following remarks to the Oregon Joint Legislative Committee regarding the IBR.
Legislators are being promised that the proposed light rail service to Vancouver, WA will arrive every 6.7 minutes during weekday rush hours.
We don’t need to guess whether this forecast will be wrong. We already know it.
Before the Yellow Line opened in 2004, TriMet promised that peak-hour trains would arrive every 7.5 minutes by 2020.
That never happened. In fact, the Yellow Line today only arrives every 15 minutes, 50% below what was promised.
Not only did TriMet planners give the wrong forecast for levels of service, they weren’t even close on the ridership estimates. TriMet predicted 35,320 weekday riders on the Yellow Line by 2020. Actual ridership in 2024 is 10,611, 70% below the forecast.
Charles previously noted that TriMet carries only about 4 percent of all regional trips. Their ridership peaked in 2012 and is currently 32 percent below pre pandemic levels. A year ago, our Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Council (RTC) staff told their Board there was a “permanent” change, nationwide, reflecting significantly lower transit ridership.
TriMet cutting only buses
TriMet is proposing to cut only bus service – up to 51 of their 78 bus lines by 2031. No cuts to light rail, in spite of light rail being more expensive to operate. MAX cost $9.41 per boarding rider last December whereas their bus service cost $8.58 per rider, according to the TriMet website.
TriMet’s proposed financial solution is a 400 percent increase in state funding via the HB 2017 created Statewide Transportation Improvement Fund (STIF). The fund provides a dedicated statewide resource for transit and is funded by an employee payroll tax of one-tenth of one percent. TriMet wants that increased to four-tenths of one percent. TriMet budgeted $45.3 million in STIF funding for fiscal year 2025.
The 2025 budget included $849 million for operations plus $201 million in capital “investments”. In 2024, TriMet used STIF funds to purchase battery electric buses. In response to COVID, the federal government awarded TriMet approximately $669,677. The agency had exhausted all COVID funds by May 2024 according to financial statements.
None of this paints a rosy picture for the transit agency. Ridership is 32 percent below pre pandemic levels, which was significantly below the 2012 ridership peak. Operating costs exploded over 50 percent in the past four years. Why won’t TriMet cut their low ridership MAX light rail routes instead of cutting only bus service?
The question for Oregon residents should be why continue funding a dying organization? The question for Clark County’s C-TRAN Board should be why would they ever sign any long term financial agreement with TriMet? Washington legislators should be wary of any “investment” of scarce state funds into an out of state transit organization that might be nonexistent by the time the IBR is completed.
The Oregon legislature currently has a multi-billion funding shortfall for their HB 2017 list of statewide transportation projects. They have only allocated $250 million towards the I-5 Bridge replacement project. Will they find the remaining $750 million they have promised Greg Johnson’s team?
Will they want to quadruple the STIF tax, just to try and keep TriMet alive? Where will the legislature find the $750 million they owe for the IBR? Will Oregon taxpayers be outraged that once again, Portland is picking their pockets for their failing mass transit dreams?
One wonders if the IBRs Greg Johnson will back away from the Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA) which includes light rail? Or will he risk it all in the hopes TriMet can get one or more state bailouts and stay financially solvent for a few more years?
Finally, will the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) send any more federal dollars to this financially ailing organization? The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) might want to take a very close look at TriMet’s financial management to see how much money has been wasted.
Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is taking an extremely close look at transit systems around the nation. Last month, he targeted the California High Speed Rail project, the NYC Metro, and the Washington, DC Metro. Perhaps his team will look north at TriMet, Sound Transit, and the IBR.
Also read:
- Busy pavement season ahead on Vancouver streets
The city of Vancouver is set to repave and preserve 76 lane miles across 20 neighborhoods in summer 2025, with ADA upgrades and community notices throughout. - State representative: Expect sticker shock when Interstate Bridge project officials reveal price, tolling plansAt a town hall in Battle Ground, Rep. John Ley warned of major cost increases and tolling burdens tied to the Interstate Bridge replacement project.
- Opinion: Washington state lawmakers increase the cost of driving – againBob Pishue of Mountain States Policy Center argues that new vehicle and fuel taxes in Washington will raise driving costs while diverting funds away from roads.
- Overnight full closure of I-5 near Woodland for bridge inspection, May 6
WSDOT will fully close southbound I-5 near Woodland overnight on Tuesday, May 6 for a bridge inspection using a chain drag test. - Opinion: Do we still need TriMet?John A. Charles Jr. of the Cascade Policy Institute argues that TriMet should halt expansion plans and prepare for major service reductions in response to falling ridership and rising costs.
Most folks that think light rail would be a nice option do not realize that it will never be self supporting and like CTRAN will be subsidized over 90% by raises of their sales and property taxes. LPR? who are the locals that prefer a version with light rail? If you took a poll with the truth about funding light rail would lose.
A new 3 lane bridge to replace an old 3 lane bridge! How exciting……
This detailed article by Representative John Ley, LD18, is a direct indicator that our majority party in the Legislature, Democrats, along with their cohorts in Vancouver City Council and the four in the Clark County Council, the C-Tran board, seem to be driven by a “dark spirit” that says “we do not care what the people we represent want”. – we want the train and the bridge. Mayor Ann of Vancouver seems to be one of the leaders of the pack that are willing to ignore the will of the people. We the people balance our checkbooks every month. If we do not have the income to meet expenses, we cut expenses. We have to live within our means. I wrote two emails to LD18 Senator Adrian Cortes over this IBR, taxes and antigun legislation. No answer. That tells me he is not interested in my direction to him as one of his constituents. As my senator in the LD18 he owes me an answer, even if he strongly disagrees with me, like balancing the budget. So with a party that will not change their taxation plans to meet goals that have been voted against several times, the next election cycles will be very interesting. We do remember. That is why Trump won the popular vote and the electoral college vote. And change has started. Let’s do the same at state, county and city levels of government.
Adrian Cortes (D-18th), voted FOR light rail in the modified “Locally Preferred Alternative” at the RTC Board Meeting and knew the project would be funded by tolls. (July 14, 2022 minutes) He was the representative for Battle Ground on the RTC board. His RTC vote is unusual because the city of Battle Ground voted AGAINST light rail by the highest margins of any city in the county, 65.29% AGAINST C-TRAN Proposition 1 in November 2012 “Resolution BR-12-009 and RCW 81.104 authorize a proposition to increase the sales and use tax by 0.1 percent, or one penny on a ten dollar purchase, to fund the C-TRAN share of the maintenance and operations costs ONLY of the Columbia River Crossing Project light rail extension between Expo Center and Clark Park & Ride…”
The IBR is the biggest fleecing attempt in Washington State history. Bigger the the failed WPPSS (the nuclear power bond failure).
It must be canceled.
Thanks to John Ley for keeping the facts in the forefront. It is unsurprising that the people who have commented in favor of the light rail project only talk about convenience for themselves and have no answers for the cost to others. The last I knew, this Nation was a Democratic Republic and not a Socialist Autocracy. Sue Marshall and Wil Fuentes would likely disagree.
And don’t forget Mayor annie ogle. She’s definitely a ring-leader of those who are adamant about spending excessive amounts of yours and my tax dollars for the IBR boondoggle (and other unneeded projects, too).
Mayor ogle needs to be shown the door at the next election!