Camas resident Douglas Tweet weighs in on the issue of light rail on the I-5 Bridge replacement project
Editor’s note: Opinions expressed in this letter to the editor are those of the author alone and do not reflect the editorial position of ClarkCountyToday.com
I strongly oppose the extension of TriMet’s light rail as part of the Interstate Bridge Replacement project (IBR). This is a regional issue that affects all of us in Clark County. Looking at actual C-TRAN ridership numbers, it is clear there is no need for light rail, and bus service can easily continue to meet the demand for public transit at a much lower cost, both now and in the future. Comparison with historical data shows that ridership over the I-5 bridge has decreased in the 18 years from 2006-2024. These actual ridership numbers are compared with 2030 predictions made by the Columbia River Crossing (CRC) project, the predecessor to IBR. These forecasts are much higher than actual trends, illustrating TriMet’s well-documented pattern of over-estimating future ridership while underestimating costs.
Citizens concerned about spending $2 billion to construct light rail across the I-5 bridge and at least $20 million in annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs should contact their city councils, Clark County Council, and C-TRAN board right away. Crucial decisions will be made in the next week. Clark County Council meets tomorrow morning, Tuesday March 4 at 11 am, https://clark.wa.gov/councilors/clark-county-council-meetings . C-TRAN is considering whether to continue funding light rail at the Tuesday March 11 meeting 5:30pm. https://mail.c-tran.com/about-c-tran/c-tran-board-information/board-meeting-calendar .
2018-2024 C-TRAN Bus Boardings for Routes Across I-5 Bridge:
From C-TRAN via a Public Records Request I received data for monthly “boardings” for bus routes across the I-5 bridge from January 2018 through December 2024. From the monthly data I estimated the weekday average, shown in the plot on the next page. Green line shows the Express bus routes1 to downtown Portland and OHSU, red line shows Route 60 to Delta Park, and the blue line shows the total, the sum of the two.
· 2018-2019 Pre-Covid: ~3200 total weekday boardings on buses across I-5 bridge.
· 2020-2024 After Covid: Huge initial ridership drop, slow increase, still well below pre-Covid values, stagnating the last two years.
· 2023-2024:
o Express buses ~600 weekday boardings,
o Route 60 to Delta Park Max light rail station ~900 daily boardings,
o Total 1500 weekday boardings (less than half pre-Covid)
· IBR plan, Express buses are included.
· Light rail would merely replace Route 60 to connect to the existing Max Yellow Line at Delta Park. That number has stagnated at about 900 boardings, or about 450 people, if round trips.
· A $2 billion light rail extension with $21 million annual O&M costs is clearly not required to meet the needs of 450 people.
(1The Express routes are 105, 105X, 134, 157, 190, and 199. In 2022 Routes 105, 134, 157, and 199 were consolidated into Route 105.)
How have these numbers changed over the last 20 years or so? 2006 Weekday Ridership Survey from CRC Project:
· 2006: 3300 weekday transit trips (see page 3-24 of the Final Environmental Impact Statement from the CRC project https://wsdot.wa.gov/accountability/ssb5806/docs/6_Project_Development/Environmental_Process_And_Permitting/FEIS_PDFs/CRC_FEIS_Chapter_3_S1_Transportation.pdf
· 3300 trips in 2006 is very similar to the 3200 observed in 2018-2019, pre-Covid, while current ridership is less than half.
· Consequently from 2006-2024, transit ridership across the I-5 bridge has decreased.
What about the future? CRC (~2012) Forecasts for 2030
· IBR stated they are revising their modeling about ridership and traffic.
· ~2012 the CRC project made predictions for 2030 (see page 3-45 of the link given above).
o 1900 weekday bus (express) passenger trips,
o 18,700 on light rail,
o 20,600 total weekday
o Figure on next page compares the CRC 2006 numbers, current C-TRAN values, and the CRC 2030 predictions.
The express bus forecast looks believable, but the total transit demand of 20,600 per weekday just 5 years from now is clearly unreasonable.
TriMet’s light rail predictions and promises routinely fall short, by a lot. John Charles of the Cascade Policy Institute describes how the Max Yellow Line has ridership at 70% below forecast, and running at 50% of the promised peak number of trains per hour. See https://cascadepolicy.org/transportation/extending-the-yellow-max-line-to-vancouver-is-trimets-worst-idea-yet/
Taylor Marks of Cascade Policy Institute asks, “Is slow, low-ridership light rail really the best usage of lane space on the proposed I-5 bridge? Or, should the new bridge instead expand lane capacity for trucks and cars usage to reduce congestion on the region’s freeways?”
Again, please voice your opposition to your city council, the Clark County Council, and C-TRAN board right away.
Douglas Tweet, Ph.D
Camas
Also read:
- Expect delays on eastbound SR 14 West Camas Slough Bridge for annual inspection, Saturday
Annual inspection will close the eastbound lane of SR 14 in Camas. - C-TRAN seeks public’s input on September 2025 Service Change Concepts
C-TRAN is gathering public input on 2025 service changes, including new routes and expanding its on-demand ride-share, The Current. - Expect delays on eastbound SR 14 for safety repairs, April 2Expect delays April 2 on eastbound SR 14 for guardrail repairs near Camas.
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Thank you, Doug for this excellent research. We must continue to deal with real facts and this adds to the body of evidence showing zero growth in light rail ridership.
It highlights the sad waste of taxpayer money on TriMet light rail which will serve almost nobody in Clark County.
We have figures and costs. Do they not see the outcomes?
They see but don’t care. Perhaps an audit would be in order. Let’s see who stands to make money from these decisions.
Excellent analysis! The only thing I would add is that low bus ridership also does not justify running those massive rolling roadblocks, known as “The Vine”. That won’t stop C-Tran from spending millions to buy a whole bunch more of them so they can also obstruct traffic up and down 164th/162nd.
Coming soon.
The present public transportation system does not work for many because it takes too long to get to your destination. It takes 15 minutes to drive to PDX from 164th & NE 18th St yet 1hr 15 minutes on public transportation. To get to downtown Portland it takes 1 hour 45 Min and driving varies from 30 min to 1 hour depending on traffic. Most Metropolitan areas of our size and density have efficient public transportation to the to airports and city centers. I know several in Camas that take public transportation to downtown Portland in spite of the time it takes but it is better than driving and paying to park. Go look at the parking lot at Fisher’s Landing Transit Station and see for yourself. Why not do a public survey on what it would take for people to use public transportation before condeming it. We can’t build our way out of traffic and congestion and most likely if we tried it would cost way more and contribute to way more polution and traffic deaths due to impatient drivers.