
In the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council’s preliminary June forecast, it predicted a national GDP increase of 1.1% in 2023
Logan Washburn
The Center Square Washington
Washington state is predicting an economic “slowdown” in the U.S., according to a recent forecast.
“The forecast expects a slowdown in U.S. economic activity this year and in early 2024,” said Stephen Lerch, executive director of the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. “Compared to our March forecast, this slowdown has been shifted forward in time.”
In the council’s preliminary June forecast, it predicted a national GDP increase of 1.1% in 2023, 0.7% in 2024, 2% in both 2025 and 2026 then 1.9% in 2027. It based these numbers on May’s Blue Chip Forecast, according to Lerch.
“I don’t think this forecast qualifies as having a recession,” he said. “A commonly used definition is having two successive quarters of negative GDP growth.”
The council predicted Washington’s employment will increase 2.3% this year, and that its employment growth will average 0.7% from 2024 to 2027.
“We expect slower growth during the remainder of the forecast as the U.S. economy slows,” the forecast reads.
Washington’s unemployment rate has been rising since a low of 3.9% in June 2022. While the state’s unemployment declined from 4.6% in February to 4.3% in April, the forecast predicted a peak rate of 5% in 2024. The council expects it will fall to 4.5% by 2027.
At the same time, the state added 30,900 nonfarm payroll jobs from January to April, while the council only expected an increase of 3,200.
“Policymakers have been trying to bring together and balance out the supply and demand for workers,” Paul Turek, state economist for Washington’s Employment Security Department, previously said.
The council also predicts national oil prices will decrease. It predicted in March the price per barrel in the third quarter of 2023 would be $77, but now expects the price will be $74 per barrel. By 2027, the council expects the price will be $63 per barrel.
“Lower oil prices are a positive for Washington and other states that do not have oil wells,” Lerch said. “They enable consumers and businesses to spend less on energy-related expenses and more on other goods and services, or increase saving.”
The Center Square reached out to Turek for comment, but did not hear back in time for publication.
This report was first published by The Center Square Washington.
Also read:
- How Washington drivers may be funding transit at the gas pumpA significant portion of Washington’s Climate Commitment Act revenue is funding transit projects, raising concerns about its impact on gas prices and transportation funding.
- Opinion: Legislation is being considered that could harm childrenElizabeth New (Hovde) of the Washington Policy Center warns that proposed legislation in Washington state could undermine parental rights in medical and social decisions affecting minors.
- Annual Quilt Show to be held at North Clark Historical MuseumThe North Clark Historical Museum’s annual quilt show returns March 22-23, showcasing the Chelatchie Quilters with the theme “Quilting Builds Friendships.”
- Teamwork leads to safe recovery of BG teenA coordinated search effort involving multiple law enforcement agencies led to the safe recovery of a missing autistic teen in Battle Ground after he had been exposed to the cold for over six hours.
- WAGOP Fights for election integrity and fair elections via House Joint Memorial 4007WAGOP Chairman Jim Walsh calls for an audit of Washington’s Motor Voter Law and fights for fair elections through House Joint Memorial 4007, with a crucial court hearing set for March 13.
- Letter: HB 1399 – A threat to public safety and local controlHB 1399 could impact law enforcement oversight and local control, raising concerns about constitutional rights and public safety in Washington state.
- Opinion: K-12 Washington state education funding overview – Part 3Washington’s K-12 education funding remains a challenge 13 years after the McCleary decision, with rising costs and unfunded mandates straining school budgets.